Box Office Bomb: ‘One Battle After Another’ Set to Lose $100 Million!

Every Monday, Mark O’Meara, who owns a theater in Virginia, reviews the weekend’s box office results to gauge how new films are performing locally. This past weekend, the results were disappointing, particularly for some critically acclaimed films that were expected to do well during the Oscar season.

A24’s sports drama “The Smashing Machine,” featuring Dwayne Johnson as MMA legend Mark Kerr, did not perform well, according to O’Meara. He also noted that “Roofman,” a comedy-drama with Channing Tatum, didn’t fare much better.

“The turnout was incredibly low,” O’Meara commented. “Despite the buzz and what I considered quality films, the audience turnout just wasn’t there.”

Not just in the D.C. metro area, but nationwide, these films struggled to attract audiences. “Roofman” opened to a meager $8 million, while “Smashing Machine” saw a significant drop of 70% in its second week, earning only $10.1 million. Another adult-targeted film, “Kiss of the Spider Woman,” a musical starring Jennifer Lopez with a $34 million budget, only brought in $850,000, playing in far fewer theaters than Tatum’s movie.

Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” starring Leonardo DiCaprio, also underperformed despite critical acclaim, calling it a generational highlight. While its global earnings of $140 million are notable for a unique, R-rated film that runs nearly three hours, it still needs about $300 million to break even. This is due to Warner Bros.’ hefty investment of over $200 million in production and marketing costs, compounded by the fact that theater revenues are usually split with cinemas and DiCaprio’s lucrative first-dollar gross deal.

“These high-brow films failed to generate a must-see urgency among moviegoers,” noted Shawn Robbins, a box office analyst at Fandango. “They lacked the event-like appeal that major blockbusters typically have.”

Robbins also speculates that the audience’s behavior might have been influenced by the shorter theatrical exclusivity window post-COVID, which has trained viewers to expect quicker streaming releases, particularly for non-blockbuster films.

“People now anticipate these films to be available for home viewing much sooner than before,” he added.

Despite its modest $19 million budget, “Roofman,” supported by Paramount Pictures and Miramax, is likely to minimize losses. However, “One Battle After Another,” which is currently pushing a costly Oscar campaign, is predicted to face a $100 million shortfall, according to industry insiders. A Warner Bros. spokesperson disputed these figures but acknowledged the studio’s successful box office year, highlighting hits like “Sinners” and “A Minecraft Movie.”

The studio stated, “We contest the anonymous sources and their speculative figures. Our entire portfolio, including ‘One Battle After Another,’ has contributed to over $4 billion in box office revenue this year.”

This revenue does not directly translate to profit, yet the successful films in Warner Bros.’ lineup this year help mitigate losses from less successful ventures. “One Battle” is also anticipated to be a significant contender at the Oscars, adding non-monetary value to the studio.

Meanwhile, A24’s “The Smashing Machine” highlights the financial risks of the studio’s new strategy to invest in more expensive films. After a recent funding round valuing the company at $3.5 billion, A24 has shifted towards higher-budget projects. For instance, “The Smashing Machine” had a budget of $50 million, significantly higher than typical indie films. Despite offloading international rights to reduce risks, if the film flops, it could still lead to substantial losses and potentially sour relationships with overseas partners.

“This is a monumental failure,” said one rival indie executive. “A24 protected themselves, but their international partners bore the brunt of the losses. They might think twice before partnering again.”

Despite these setbacks, industry analysts remain hopeful that studios will continue producing diverse films aimed at adult audiences, as a mix of genres and stories is vital for revitalizing cinema to pre-pandemic attendance levels. “Audiences generally opt for familiar franchises, making it challenging for studios to invest heavily in original content due to the higher risk of failure,” pointed out Eric Wold from Texas Capital Securities.